Gas Costs 37 Percent More Than a Year Ago as Americans Vote

A gallon of regular gasoline costs $4.17 on the eve of the US midterm elections, $1.13 more than it did a year ago. The American Automobile Association (AAA) reports a national average of $4.1694 on 2 November against $3.0361 a year earlier, a rise of 37 percent. For a 15-gallon fill-up that is about $17 extra, every time. On 28 February, when the US and Israel first struck Iran, the average was $2.98.

The cost lands hardest on diesel, which carries goods. AAA has diesel at $6.29 a gallon, and NBC News says that is 77 percent higher than at the start of the year. It crossed $6 for the first time in September and peaked at $6.53, according to Al Jazeera. Those freight costs reach shelves with a delay, and they are the reason a fall at the petrol pump does not bring a fall in the shop.

Chart: GoodBad. Data from AAA Gas Prices, readings dated 2 November 2025 to 2 November 2026.

A drop that has not yet reached the pump

Oil fell sharply on Monday, and that matters. Brent crude closed down 7.6 percent at $104.77 a barrel and US crude down 7.3 percent at $96.46, NBC reports, the biggest one-day percentage falls since 27 July. Pump prices were already easing: AAA shows $4.29 a week ago and $4.40 a month ago. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy said wholesale prices point to another 16 cents off, and that the average could drop below $4 within a week if nothing changes.

Even so, the starting point is the problem. Global oil prices are up about 45 percent since the war began in late February, NBC says, and Brent is still above $100. Those fears have not gone away. In September, Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch wrote that major energy infrastructure damage could send prices as high as $150 a barrel. He also wrote that if skirmishes curbing oil flows continue to year-end, Brent could trade between $95 and $120.

Who pays

Diesel is the clearest case. AAA’s record for diesel is $6.5276, set on 22 September, and the current $6.29 is within 24 cents of it. Diesel futures fell 5.4 percent on Monday, NBC says, which helps, but a futures price is not a pump price. Truckers, farms and delivery firms pay the pump price, and so do their customers.

The price varies by place. AAA lists Hawaii at $5.66 a gallon and Delaware, the lowest of the states it shows, at $3.95. The all-time record for regular gasoline is $5.02, set on 14 June 2022, and today’s price is below it. Households that drive for work have little room to cut back, and the cost reaches them twice: once at the pump and again in the price of goods that travelled by truck.

The relief is real but fragile, and it follows a fall from $4.40 that still leaves the average above $4. It depends on diplomacy that NBC describes as headlines, not a deal, and on a forecast from one analyst. AAA’s reading in a week will show whether the average falls below $4 or whether a 37 percent increase on last year is the new floor.