European Gas Tops €100 for First Time Since 2022 With Storage Short

Europe’s gas benchmark went above €100 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday for the first time in almost four years, and the bloc’s storage is further from full than it should be. The Dutch TTF front-month contract traded at €100.37 at 16:00 Central European Time on 28 October, up more than 4% on the day, Euronews reported. It last stood above €100 in December 2022.

The price was about €32 before the Iran war began in late February, so it has roughly tripled. It is still well under the record of about €340 reached in August 2022. Euronews says the war has disrupted liquefied natural gas shipments from several sources, mainly Qatar, and almost no Qatari gas reached the EU over the summer. The United States now supplies roughly 30% of the bloc’s gas.

Storage and the winter

The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) put storage at 75% full on 21 October, short of the usual 90% target for 1 November, which countries may meet more flexibly. Storage finished last winter at 28%, against a nine-year average of about 40%. ACER estimates that the war has added €18 billion to €33 billion to Europe’s gas import bill.

Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said Europe faces another energy crisis. He added: “We know that this winter will be difficult for European citizens and for our economy in general.” He said fuel bills are rising sharply. Europe will also compete with Asia for spare LNG cargoes, which could cause further price swings. EU demand is about 20% below its level before 2022, which helps stocks last longer.

The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts European gas up about 60% in 2026 and down about 8% in 2027. It says European and Asian LNG prices more than doubled from pre-conflict levels by September. The Commission wants to raise output at European refineries and is exploring a long-term LNG deal with Canada. EU energy ministers meet on Thursday.