Good newsEbola Vaccine Trials Begin as Spread Beyond Congo Stays at 31 Cases
Vaccine trials have started against the Bundibugyo outbreak, and of 10,498 confirmed Ebola cases only 31 were found outside Congo, with no active cases in Uganda or France. The 5,107 confirmed deaths and the lack of an approved vaccine keep it a grave emergency.
Read the bad side of this story
Ebola Deaths Pass 5,000 in Congo With No Approved Vaccine or Treatment
The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak is the largest in Congo’s history, with 5,107 confirmed deaths, and it has stayed overwhelmingly a Congolese emergency. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts 10,498 confirmed cases as of 31 October. Only 31 of them were found in four other countries, and Uganda and France report no active cases.
That is the encouraging half of a grave picture. Africa CDC, which counts differently, told AFP that 5,376 people have died, and it calls the outbreak the fastest-growing and most widespread on record. More than half of those infected have died. Both facts belong at the top of any honest account. The rest of this piece is about where the virus has been stopped, and what is being tried against it.
Where it has not spread
The CDC table below separates the outbreak by country. Uganda’s 20 cases were almost all people who had travelled from Congo, according to Al Jazeera’s report of the AFP and Reuters wires. Its last confirmed patient left care on 16 July and the country was declared Ebola-free in August. France’s single case, a health worker, was released on 4 July.
| Country | Confirmed cases | Confirmed deaths | Status (CDC, 31 October) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Congo | 10,467 | 5,103 | Active; 8 provinces affected |
| Uganda | 20 | 2 | No active cases |
| Kenya | 9 | 2 | All in Nairobi; no community spread reported |
| Nigeria | 1 | 0 | Reported 20 October |
| France | 1 | 0 | Released 4 July |
Source: CDC situation summary for the Bundibugyo outbreak, updated 2 November 2026. Kenya figures are as of 23 October. The CDC also lists one probable case and one probable death in Uganda.
Kenya’s nine infections, its first Ebola cases, were all in Nairobi, and the CDC reports no spread into the community. In Nigeria, health authorities said two rounds of tests on two further suspected cases in the north-east came back negative. Within Congo, the CDC lists eight affected provinces and says South Kivu has had no confirmed case since 29 May.
What the trials can show
There is no approved vaccine or treatment for the Bundibugyo strain. Clinical trials of Ervebo, a vaccine licensed against the more common Zaire strain, began in recent weeks. The aim is to learn whether it gives cross-protection. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) says its BRAVO study and the Tumaini trial are examining exactly that, alongside newer candidates built for Bundibugyo itself.
Ervebo is already being given by Congo’s health ministry during the outbreak, but MSF’s technical brief says its effectiveness against this strain is unproven. The brief reviews four candidates: Ervebo, rVSVΔG-BDBV-GP, ChAdOx1-BDBV-GP and mRNA-1469. Its main concern is supply. MSF asks the manufacturer, Merck Sharp & Dohme, to send all doses made in the coming months to the global stockpile, and asks rich countries not to hold back more than they need.
What to watch
For readers outside Congo, the CDC says the risk to the American public is low and no US cases have been confirmed. From 3 November at 11:59 pm Eastern, every passenger on international flights to the United States must attest that they have not been in Congo in the previous 21 days. The CDC advises against all travel to Ituri and North Kivu.
The measures to watch are the trial readouts and the case counts in the eight Congolese provinces. A vaccine that works would change the arithmetic of a disease that kills more than half of the people it infects. Until a trial reports, the figure to hold on to is the small one: 31 cases found outside Congo, in an outbreak that has now passed 10,000.
